Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
